What awaits India, post Covid.

The Global Financing Facility of the World Bank Group: Large service disruptions in India have the potential to leave nearly 23 million children without oral antibiotics for pneumonia, over 27 million children without DPT vaccinations, more than 4,7 million women without access to facility-based deliveries, and some 40 million fewer women receiving family planning services. Child mortality in India could increase by 40% and maternal mortality by 52% over the next year.

Patients with kidney disease: After three weeks of lockdown in March-April, outpatient attendance among patients with kidney disease decreased by 92.3% and inpatient services reduced by 61%. A report authored jointly by Dr Narayan Prasad and 22 other Indian doctors based on a survey of 19 major hospitals (8 government and 11 private) covering 2517 patients found that approximately 710 (28.2%) patients missed one or more dialysis sessions. Source: Kidney Internation Reports.

A study based on a survey of 256 oncologists reported that the pandemic had impacted the evaluation of patients and the delivery of care in outpatient clinics. Almost 50% of onco-surgeons had suspended cancer screenings. The survey was in pan India, covering 206 cancer hospitals in 85 cities. Once-surgeons in private hospitals reported staff salary cuts ranging from 10% to 95%—Source: Journal of Surgical Oncology.

A study commenced by the STOP TB partnership in collaboration with Imperial College, and Johns Hopkins University modelled that each month of lockdown in India could cause an additional 40,685 TB cases annually over the nextfive5 years, adding up to a rise of 151,120 (5.7%) TB deaths in India. In a worst-case scenario (a three-month lockdown, which we exceeded, andten0 months to restoration of services), cases of TB would go up 12%, with excess deaths of 19%, to nearly 512,000 between 2020-2025. Source: STOP TB Partnership.

The stories and the worries are the same on many fronts.

Health and education are the two legs on which any policy on sustained growth and development stands. When these legs are weak, there is nowhere to go, let alone run.

The original author is a journalist and a faculty member at Bhavan’s SJPIMR.

CMEPEDIAfast-tracks gaps in information provision. Education on the aftermath of the COVID pandemic will be provided.